AfterShocks A measurement, not a prediction.

Method

Every number Aftershocks publishes comes from one plain rule. The rule is applied to closed hourly prices. Here it is, step by step.

The data

Hourly closes from Coinbase US dollar pairs.

Only closed candles are used, so a reading never changes after the fact.

A coin needs 139 hourly candles of history before it gets a reading.

Aftershocks Coil, step by step

  1. Take the last 20 closed hourly closes.
  2. Find their average and their spread (the population standard deviation). The band runs 2 standard deviations either side of the average.
  3. Bandwidth is the width of the band divided by the average. That is the upper band minus the lower band, divided by the average.
  4. Compare this hour’s bandwidth with the last 120 hours, counting the current one. That is five days.
  5. Coil is 100% minus the share of the other 119 hours that were narrower. Equal hours do not count as narrower.

100% means no other hour in that window was narrower. 0% means every other hour was.

An illustration with made-up numbers. It is not market data.

Say this hour’s bandwidth is 1.2%, and 30 of the other 119 hours were narrower. Coil is 100% minus 25.2%, which is 74.8%.

Aftershocks Break

After Coil has reached 100%, a Break is the first closed hourly candle to close beyond the band by at least 0.1%.

Aftershocks Weather and Aftershocks Fault

Aftershocks Weather: the conditions around the coin. Funding, open interest, the gap between futures and spot prices, and how the coin moves with Bitcoin.

Aftershocks Fault: candles tinted by Coil, with a profile of where the coin spent its quietest hours.

How we check our work

The bot and the TradingView scripts are tested against each other. They must agree exactly.

At launch they matched on 28,620 hourly Coil readings across ten coins.

Every reading uses closed candles, so nothing repaints.

Open and closed

Aftershocks Fault is open source under the MPL 2.0 licence. Aftershocks Coil, Aftershocks Break and Aftershocks Weather are closed source.

What we never say

We do not say when the quiet ends, which way price goes, or what to buy or sell.

We name no price level. We publish no results.

Everything here describes the past.

Limits

Hourly candles only. Coinbase US dollar pairs only. Nothing here is advice.

Reuse

The text, charts and scripts are copyrighted works. The Aftershocks names are claimed trademarks.

Copying or reselling them, or reverse engineering the protected scripts, is not permitted.

The full rules are in the Terms.

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